Thursday, July 23, 2009

In praise of pure reason

The US markets continued their inexorable surge to new highs. That sounded good but was not entirely true. S&P did make a new high but is still in the range of the previous top of 956. Nevertheless it has not retreated after a double top. The potential exists for it to break through this resistance on its way to 1000-1050.
The Nifty retreated yesterday. During the day, I even sold for a very short term trade on the break of 4438. Today I might be forced to cover it. My favorite theme has been that the Dollar is the key to understand trends in other asset classes. DXY Index continues to trend down. Commodities and Equities continue their uptrend. So continuing from my yesterday's theme, the best thing to do would be to be long and then do NOTHING.
We had a solar eclipse yesterday. Those living in India or who have lived in Indian in the past would know the amount of superstitions around any eclipse. There are financial astrologers who predict the fall of the market based on planets and their positions. These guys had a field day yesterday predicting the fall of markets due to the eclipse. Well nothing significant really happened. Compare these events with the great Greek Eratostenes who deduced the size of the earth, moon and the sun and the distances between them by pure rational thinking and reasoning. With nothing but a wooden stick and the stuff between his ears to help him. If you are interested in finding out how he did it, I have attached a ppt with this note which is fantastic reading. It has 20 odd slides but might interest all of you to just glance through it. Will not take more than 5 minutes of your valuable time but will definitely leave you inspired
P.S In case you cannot open the attachment for any reason you can go to google and type faculty sjcny edu holtzman greeks and orbs ppt and the search will yield this particular ppt.

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