The world markets have turned decisively up. S&P has turned up and could make a rally all the way to 1000-1050 levels. The Asian markets were trending up in any case. Nifty for eg was already trending up in weekly and monthly charts and now the daily chart has turned up too. This indicates that the short term correction post the budget is over and that we have resumed the medium term uptrend. Commodity index (CRY index) has again turned up. The Dollar Index has gained some momentum on the downside. This gives me confidence in the belief that the downtrend is over for the Nifty.

All this brings me to my favorite question viz... How high can it go? (Sometime back I had tried to answer the question how low it can go...and had failed miserably). A cursory glance at the daily charts show that the Nifty can easily go back to the high made pre-budget. viz 4700. This is good for a short term target. But why not get more ambitious and give a more longer term target for the Nifty? Why should only strategists and fundamental analysts have that privilege? Not that they are right too often but then why should only they have the right to be wrong?. So I gave a more imaginative glance at the daily charts and saw a potential reverse head and shoulder. The left shoulder formed between Apr-Aug 2008. The head was formed in Oct 2008 and currently the right shoulder is being formed. The neckline lies at 4800. So 4800 clearly is one short term target. The reverse head and shoulder pattern has a potential target of 6100-6200 on the Nifty which also happens to be close to the previous peak.

With this deep and insightful analysis, I come to the conclusion that the short term target for the Nifty is 4800 and the one year target for the Nifty is 6100!!!. You are wondering what was deep and insightful about this? Well it is as deep and insightful as the work done by the respected strategists.

Ok now to come to the point of this note. You know I have no love lost for the Australian cricket team. But they were fighting with their back to the wall yesterday in the second Ashes Test. Incredible fightback. Now they are on the verge of making history. I hope that they do it. Wouldn't it be worth watching?

P.S For the intra-day traders... short the Nifty at current levels with a stop at 4456... target 4350