The extended break

I feel the withdrawl symptoms now. The extended break in Market Musings started, like in other aspects of my life, as a small break of couple of days. How it moved on to being an extended two month break is a topic worthy of its own space in Market Musings. But I will reserve that for some other time. Let me just say that if I can cure myself of this curse of procrastination I will be a different person. (No it is not a mistake. I deliberately did not use the word better.)

Having said all this, the fact is that not sending the notes for two months has not mattered one bit. No, I am not referring to the fact that there were NO requests for me to resume my daily note !!! It has not mattered in the sense that the trends have not changed during the break and are still up for almost all asset classes. Most equity indices are still trended up. The only ones that are clearly not are Nikkei and Kospi. Even the laggards like European indices are trended up.

Commodities continue to trend up too. The CRY Index is trending up. Gold and Silver are at new highs. The best looking chart in commodities currently is Silver. This could even outperform gold in the medium term. Crude and Copper are the laggards even though the trend is still up for both the commodities.

The Dollar Index is trended down in all time frames, daily, weekly and monthly. I have already said that equity indices and Commodities are trended up. It is as if there are no problems at all in the world and never were any. It is as if 2008 was all a bad dream. My fear is that we are having a kind of correlation across asset classes like never before. When the trend change comes, it will be brutal and swift and most likely across asset classes. Thus there will be hardly any lead indication in any one asset class to help identify a potential trend change in another. Having said this, I continue to be long the Nifty in my end of day RSI system. Today I sold the Nifty when it broke below the 5 min low. This is just a day trade. The way RIL reacted to the news on bonus is not good for the stock. Just a couple of years ago a news like this could have resulted in a big up day in the markets. We live and learn I guess.

Market Musings was not the only extended break I had. There was a time two years ago--- yes two years ago when I had a reasonably extended run of regular exercises and controlled diet. A break of a couple of days has extended to couple of years. Hopefully along with this note, those good days will be back!!!