Predictions

I said yesterday that GS will thrash analysts estimates. The earnings came in at 5.25 dollars per share against the best expectation of around 4.7. While my assumption that GS will thrash estimates was right, the stock fell!!!. Apparently the whisper numbers specially after JPMs sterling performance was for around 6 dollars per share. One will now have to use advanced game theory to actually decide where the stock is headed even after getting ones assumption about the Earnings spot on.

Let us get back to our regular markets and Nifty. Clearly you do not need me to tell you that the trend is up for most indices and commodities. Any monkey with an old wooden ruler can tell you that. Ok I accept. That was an exaggeration. But it kind of puts the point across well. Then the only thing left for me to do is to try and predict when could this rally end and how high could we go before a correction starts.

This is clearly an impossible task for a rational person but then if I was rational I would not be writing this note, would I?. (I would be scrambling to raise some money to participate in the market with a 2-20 share!!!) Plus nothing is too difficult for the Man with "The Window"---you know--- the one with a view of the Powai lake. So I stared out of my window in deep contemplation for 3 minutes and then I got it!!! I looked at the fact that 1.382 times the move from 2525 to 4700 added to 2525 is 5500. 4700 minus 3900 is 800 points which when added to 4700 gives 5500. 80% retracement of the entire fall from 6300 to 2525 is guess what? 5500. Yes that is right. This is too much of a coincidence. How can 5500 come up so many times?. So I predict that the Nifty will go to 5500. Why? I have no particular reason but for the fact that 5500 came up 3 times in this paragraph. If you can up with a number of your own then do let me know!!!

While I am at predicting things why not also predict by when will the correction start. I looked at the fact that we are 32 weeks into the rally from March and 51 weeks into the rally from Oct lows. 34 and 55 are Fibonacci numbers. So I can easily make another prediction that we will top out within 2 to 4 weeks. If you add the previous two predictions together I am saying that we should head to 5500 within 2-4 weeks!!!.

Man can one get better than this? Now the really funny part would be if this actually worked!!! P.S-- Still long Nifty. No stop in mind today. Also somebody asked me my best three stock picks for next year. So I threw some darts and came up with Castrol, BPCL and Dr Reddys. And you know what? I will not be too surprised if these stock returns are better than the Nifty returns!!!