The Market is out to get me!!!

I wrote yesterday that the markets are so boring that it takes a lot of effort to keep awake. And guess what happened?. The Nifty went berserk and rallied more than 3% in the day.

You would have already read enough analysis of this move. I am sure some reasonable sounding causes have been bandied about. One of the most rational cause is that gamma short positions in calls were forced to delta hedge by buying the Nifty when it started to move up. Apparently this became a self feeding mechanism with one delta hedger triggering another and so on. Plausible.

But I will let you in on a little secret. I was short and yesterdays rally was the markets way of getting back at me!!!

There is this other thing going on in the world. The Dollar rally I mean. Yesterday of course was a negative day for the Dollar Index. But the rally is still not over according to my way of looking at things. We could be headed higher.

Among equity markets, S&P, Nikkei and Kospi are in a clear uptrend. I have HSI and HSCEI in a downtrend. The table that I send separately has their trend change levels. In commodities, precious metals like Gold and Silver are in a downtrend while Copper, Lead and Crude are in an uptrend.

My Trading System (MyTS) used on an end of day data basis, has Nifty as a short. The trend change level is 5200. Above that the system changes to a BUY. (Notice the devious play with words... it does not say whether I am long or short)

I am sure that after reading this brilliant piece of writing you would be happy to empanel MAPE Securities. I mean just for the pleasure of reading this stuff daily!. But this is the holiday season and I do not want to bother you now. I will get in touch with you in the New Year.