Weekend Blues

There is nothing worse than seeing your sell trigger being hit only to find that you made the low of the day. The Nifty triggered my sell at 5620 and then promptly proceeded to trade above it, albeit by a small amount, for the rest of the day. This spoilt my Friday afternoon. To make things even worse, S&P had a monster rally and effectively ruined my evening. I can spoil the weekends too  by worrying about how much the Nifty will gap up and whether my STT sell will end up in a loss! 

But I am a seasoned warrior**** and I have put it in the past. Of course the Tsonga Djokovic semis helped. The fact that I am short Gold and Silver on my personal account helped too! I have made some plans for a movie on Sunday--- I plan to watch Delhi Belly and the Wimbledon finals which promises to be a cracker. I am tring every which way to keep my spirit up this weekend!

As things stand, my STT triggered the SELL on Friday at 5620. My LTT is still long from 5610 levels and hence I am currently 1/3 short on my trading book. (-2/3STT +1/3LTT). The buy trigger in STT is at 5703. If the Nifty trades above it, then I will cut my STT short positions and go long. This would make me 100% long on my trading book. If the Nifty does not go up and actually trades below Fridays low (5616) then the chances of a fall increase substantially. My LTT sell trigger is a 5561 and if that is broken, then I will end up being 100% short on the Nifty.

Given the amount of optimism around the world based on a probably one off improvement in the manufacturing data in the US and the incredibly cultivated skill in self delusion amongst politicians and bankers in the developed world-specially the European region, I will not be surprised if we see a rally and my Buy trigger on the STT being hit. To top this good news from Greece, 4th July is American Independence day, a market holiday. No bad stats can come out today from the US. All this adds to the possibility of a rally past 5700 on Monday.

To summarise my position   STT Short   LTT long 

STT: Cut short and go long > 5703

LTT: Cut Long and go short < 5561 

**** To know more about the Warrior-read my note "The Warrior of Light" :)