Monday, August 8, 2011


On a day like today, with the double overhang on S&P downgrade and the unresolved Euro crisis, it is difficult to write even a self deprecating note. I am short on the Nifty and therefore doing ok. Cannot be too self deprecating when my position is doing well, can I? Cannot write anything too frivolous because it will not go too well with the general mood in the markets, I guess. I cannot even write that the US had it coming or the Western world is getting its just desserts because that would be like kicking a man when he is down. It is not good form and just not done, isn't it?.

So I stick to the fact that the Euro has gone up today against the Dollar. Just maybe there is some belief in ECBs ability to buy Italian and Spanish bonds to stabilise the debt markets. However, on the flip side, Gold and Silver are up big and other commodities like Crude and Copper are down. This indicates to me that paper currencies are still getting a beating and the risk off trade is taking money into Gold and Silver.

In Nifty, we see a large gap left during last Friday's fall. The Nifty has also traded below 5180 levels which has been a strong support for the last 6 month. If we trade below Fridays lows today then we could see a further deterioration in Nifty levels in the coming days. That makes me confident enough to remain short in the Nifty without bothering on a stop-loss for today.

Current Position: Short
Probable Trades: None

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