Friday, December 30, 2011

Global Citizen


Yesterday evening, most markets recovered from their lows starting with the Euro, the European stock markets and the various commodities as some number released in the US came better than expected. It is always better to think of that data that comes out of the US as "some number" because there are so many of them and you do not want to waste your energy trying to remember each one of them. If you are one of those people who likes to dot their I's and cross their Ts and would like to know the details of the data that was released yesterday then I suggest that you use the function ECO in Bloomberg. It is efficient enough to highlight the details.

With one trading session to go, this could end up being a positive year for the US markets if the S&P manages to stay above 1257. That is a creditable achievement given the fact that the rest of the world is mired deep in the red. I guess one does have some benefits of being the biggest bad boy in town and US may be battered but make no mistake, it is still the biggest bully around. The status of the Dollar as the reserve currency of the world allows them to print unlimited quantities of it and the printing presses in the US have been working overtime to get the economy to move. After 3 years of unstinted effort the economy is beginning to show some traction and boy have the US markets celebrated!!! What you say they are only 0.5% in the green? Better than being 0.5% down I say.

The Indian markets are another story. We have never been too bothered about our own problems. We as a people live on a higher plane where we have subsumed our personal identity. We have expanded our consciousness and have merged it with the larger consciousness of the world. We feel the pain of others and also celebrate the joys of others. So when Europe feels some pain, our markets react and fall in sympathy. When US rejoices on some data release, our markets react with joy too. We are the true Global Citizen. But I am short and this ability to celebrate with the rest of the world despite our own homes being on fire is what is worrying me currently.

While I do not like it, my system will require me to go long above 4729. I will therefore cut my short positions and go long on Nifty futures above that level.

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