Nifty View

I am short on the Nifty and have woken up to see the Singapore Nifty trade higher. This bodes well for me because of my untested belief (read my note yesterday on untested belief) that if the Nifty opens higher then it will end lower during the day. Great to have beliefs and never test them because then you can selectively use those beliefs that serve your current condition well.

I am short on the Nifty based on my short term trading system. But yesterday afternoon, I sent a note saying that if Nifty trades below 5350 on the spot or 5395 on the futures then it is a Medium term SELL. What I failed to clarify then, which I wish to do now, is that this is a belief and not a tested system that I use to trade. It is something that I believe should happen based on my way of looking at things. I believe that this fall will take the Nifty to 5000 levels eventually. However, given that we have fallen 4 straight days in a row one cannot rule out a temporary halt in the coming days. But the fall should eventually resume and we should see 5000 before the end of March.

I might have this medium term view of Nifty reaching 5000 levels in March but my trades are based on my short term trading system which I will follow irrespective of my view or beliefs. I will therefore cut my short position and go long if Nifty futures trades above 5495.