Calvinball

The Nifty has been an underperformer when compared to the rest of the world in the last few sessions. Hopefully this underperformance will end soon. I expect the Nifty to march to 5000 in the short term and to a new high within the next one year. The reasons for this range from my gut feel, astrological predictions, hope to blind faith. Hey just kidding!!!. The reasons have been listed in my previous posts and include Reverse Head and Shoulder, RSI 50 on monthly charts etc.

Asian markets continue their uptrend. S&P looks like it is headed to 1200 in the medium term. Commodities are rallying like there is no tomorrow and the Dollar looks ready to sink to 75 and then plunge to 71. That felt nice. Had a nice zing to it.

Coming to my 3 stocks and 4 indices and the Ctrl C and Ctrl V (I am beginning to get good at it)

RIL: Long since 31st July at 1960. Target 2300. Stop 1870.

ICICI Bank: Long since 30th July at 745. Target 840. Stop 720.

Infosys: Continue long positions

HSI: Long since 31 st July at 20670. Stop 20100

HSCEI: Long only above 12460.

KM1: Continue long positions.

Nifty Index: Long since 4610. Stop 4580.

Coming to the point of this note, I always thought that traders had an easy job. Make an absolute return of 20-25% per annum on gross exposure. How difficult can that be? I mean, you know, that sounds like a job one can do sleepwalking through the day, doesn't it? Despite this, my experience with my bosses have not always been nice. Somehow they never seemed pleased with my performance, especially during bonus time. I have always wondered why?

And then yesterday when I was reading Calvin and Hobbes the answer struck me. Obviously the bosses were great fans of the comic strip too. They had all along been playing Calvinball...you know the game in which the rules can be changed on the fly. If Nifty went up big time during the year, then the rules would be surreptitously innovated to include outperformance of the Nifty along with absolute return. If the Nifty fell then the rules were innovated to include only absolute return. The outperformance was given the old heave ho!!!. And then if the trader outperformed as well as gave an absolute return? Well the rules could be changed to include an absurdly high Return on Capital Employed or some such thing. All along I was playing the game of trading while I should have been playing Calvinball. No wonder the bosses were outraged when I showed my disappointment. They thought I was not being a sport!!!

Now that I am clear what game I am playing the present bosses should not have a problem with me!!!.

On a more serious note, my advice to fund managers. Please check the game that you are playing and everything will be alright!!!