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I somehow managed to get up in time to write this note. Struggled to get up to be precise. Met an old friend of mine for dinner yesterday night. We were meeting after 20 years and we had a lot to talk about. These dinners tend to go on and on. It is fun while it lasts but can take a toll the next morning.
By now, I have mastered the art of writing a daily note without saying anything so it is really not to such a difficult job. I usually fall back on my old trusted friend viz. the trend. Equities are trended up. Commodities are trended up. The Dollar is trended down. Interestingly, somebody who looks at the Tom Demark Indicators was telling me that the indicators have hinted at a possible reversal in the trend for the Dollar. And then somebody else who looks at the same indicators even more deeply and has spent a lot of time studying them said that the Dollar is now cycling down. The gist of what the second person was saying is that the Dollar is breaking below its supports and could start a fresh move down. To an outsider this might sound crazy but we insiders know that the same inputs can have different intepretations in the hands of different practitioners of the esoteric art of technical analysis!!!
The net result of this deep analysis is that if the first person is right that the Dollar has found support the it should move up and equities and commodities should correct. But if the second person is right then equities and commodities will continue their rally. Now where does that leave us? And where do I stand in this interesting debate on the Dollar? I think the Dollar is headed lower and that the equities and commodities are headed higher. Despite all this, if the Nifty futures trades below 4580 the trader in me will override the analyst and ruthlessly short the Nifty!!!.
P.S The 3 stocks and 4 indices continue their trend therefore I will dispense with even the Ctrl C and Ctrl V for today!!!. Please refer to yesterdays note if you are really so interested in knowing what I have to say about them!!!. And I know that if I get Rs 1000 for every person who does not go back to my previous note to check my views, I will be a very rich man!!!. And finally if you want to know... i think one can buy RIL and sell Nifty equal value against it. Outperformance bet on RIL should be rewarding. Man, this has turned out to be a pretty long post script.
By now, I have mastered the art of writing a daily note without saying anything so it is really not to such a difficult job. I usually fall back on my old trusted friend viz. the trend. Equities are trended up. Commodities are trended up. The Dollar is trended down. Interestingly, somebody who looks at the Tom Demark Indicators was telling me that the indicators have hinted at a possible reversal in the trend for the Dollar. And then somebody else who looks at the same indicators even more deeply and has spent a lot of time studying them said that the Dollar is now cycling down. The gist of what the second person was saying is that the Dollar is breaking below its supports and could start a fresh move down. To an outsider this might sound crazy but we insiders know that the same inputs can have different intepretations in the hands of different practitioners of the esoteric art of technical analysis!!!
The net result of this deep analysis is that if the first person is right that the Dollar has found support the it should move up and equities and commodities should correct. But if the second person is right then equities and commodities will continue their rally. Now where does that leave us? And where do I stand in this interesting debate on the Dollar? I think the Dollar is headed lower and that the equities and commodities are headed higher. Despite all this, if the Nifty futures trades below 4580 the trader in me will override the analyst and ruthlessly short the Nifty!!!.
P.S The 3 stocks and 4 indices continue their trend therefore I will dispense with even the Ctrl C and Ctrl V for today!!!. Please refer to yesterdays note if you are really so interested in knowing what I have to say about them!!!. And I know that if I get Rs 1000 for every person who does not go back to my previous note to check my views, I will be a very rich man!!!. And finally if you want to know... i think one can buy RIL and sell Nifty equal value against it. Outperformance bet on RIL should be rewarding. Man, this has turned out to be a pretty long post script.
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