A Dash of Hope

It has been a long time since I last wrote. The reasons were many, foremost among them was the fact that I am a lazy person. I have, however, been getting my things in order. I therefore decided that it is time I got back to writing my morning note.

The question really is why did I not wait for the start of a fresh week to write this note? I think it is because I felt that there was something to say today. After a largish fall, the Nifty looks like it is on the verge of a rally. This rally has the potential to make a new high on Nifty.

The reasons for my belief in this rally are many- all of which have to do with the way I interpret the chart of the Nifty.

1] The nifty has not broken below its 100 EMA---- YET.

2] The weekly chart of the Nifty still shows an RSI reading above 50.

3] We have seen a two day rally and a cross of the high of yesterday viz 5915 on the futures will increase the probability of this rally to a new high.

Naturally another person can interpret the same Nifty chart differently and could give you 3 equally strong reasons for a fall to much lower levels. But in this gloom which is almost all pervading why not add a dash of hope?