A Dream?

Once in a while, I get it right. The view as well as the timing. Nifty crossed 5915 yesterday triggering my BUY levels,. Of course it is a long way off from 6350, the levels where it makes a new high, so it is still not proper to say that I got the call right. But it definitely helps when one gives a BUY call and the markets move up.

While this is good, I need to see a reversal in the flight to safety trade to feel more comfortable with this BUY call. So we look at the proxy for reversal to safety viz the Dollar Index. If it breaks below 80.49 today then the Dollar Index begins a small downtrend. (Nowadays even CNBC shows the Dollar Index on its ticker) I hope the market crosses this milestone today. Keep reading this note daily, dear readers, as we will be talking of more milestones along the way to a new high!

On another note, I dreamt yesterday night in my sleep. A dream in which I have spent all that I have earned and am effectively bankrupt. But I devise a scheme where in I write IOUs to all my suppliers-my grocer, the electronic good shops, the hotels and restaurants, my club, hospital everything. And guess what? They not only accept my IOUs but also use the IOUs to trade goods amongst themselves. I am suddenly a very rich man again. I buy and use all the stuff I need. As long as my IOUs are considered good credit risk I remain a very wealthy man. And you know the greatest irony is that the suppliers actually competed among themselves to take my IOUs and sell me their goods. I even heard that were a couple of robberies to steal my IOUs-- I mean who would want to steal something that I could keep writing was beyond me. A few friends caught on and tried writing their own IOUs but for some reason the world never really bought their IOUs. At the first sign of trouble people dumped the other IOUs and flocked to mine. This was a really pleasant dream. I was having a great time printing my IOUs and spending all I could. I could not dream of anything better.

However, have you ever had dreams which start of pleasantly enough and then suddenly you have a foreboding that this dream is going to turn into a nightmare? Most times, I have managed to get up before the pleasant dream turns into a full blown nightmare. Unfortunately, I started getting this foreboding about my pleasant dream of IOUs that I was having. The same people who were at one time hoarding my IOUs had begun dumping it. Unfortunately everybody owned them and there was none left to buy them anymore. Not only did people stop buying my fresh IOUs, the value of the exisitng IOUs dropped sharply too. I had got used to a very wealthy lifestyle based on borrowed money. I did not know anyother way of living. When things began looking very bleak, my survival instincts kicked in and I got up before my pleasant dream became a nightmare!