Monty Python-Dead Parrot

I have been saying for a few days that I continue to be negative on the Nifty and will remain short until 5635 is crossed. I guess that is unequivocal. This does not mean that I am living in an alternate reality where the Nifty has not moved up in the last 3 days. Not only am I acutely aware of the fact, ( how could I not be when I am enduring the MTM losses daily) I believe that it presents us with a good opportunity to make some money in the short term. I will sell the Nifty futures if it breaks below 5440 for a targer of 5300. As I said, it is a short term trade and should take a few days if the trade gets triggered.

Along with the Nifty, other indices, currencies and commodities are making a counter trend rally. That is the way I define it-I could be totally wrong and it could be the start of a big up move but hopefully I will wake up some time along the way and rectify my view. But until then I remain short.

This counter trend rally has been seen in the last few days and it has coincided with the slowly building consensus that private bond holders can be cajoled into participating in Greece bonds or at the very least continuing with their current level of holdings. In any case the consensus assumes that this could somehow be construed as not a restructuring. This is critical--- the not restructuring part---- since a restructuring would in turn trigger the CDSs.

This collective refusal to accept the fact that countries in the peripheral Europe are on the verge of bankruptcy is almost like this scene in Monty Python where the customer who has been given a dead parrot by the shopkeeper tries to return it back.

Customer: He's dead, He's passed on, This parrot is no more. He's expired and gone on to meet his maker. He's a stiff. Bereft of life. He rests in peace. His metabolic processes are now history. He's kicked the bucket. He's shuffled off his mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleeding choir invisible!!. HE's and EX PARROT.

Shopkeeper: No he is just sleeping.

And whatever the customer says the shopkeeper continues to insist that the Parrot is just resting. Now replace the shopkeeper with keepers of the EU and you have a perfect Monty Python story.