Deceptive Calm

The political parties in the US did not reach a debt deal and the markets have reacted as expected. Asia has opened down and the Dollar has weakened against the Swiss Franc. What it does to Nifty is not clear but as I write this note, the Nifty is trading slightly down. Luckily for me, my sell triggers are much lower so there is nothing to worry about for the moment.

Well, I should qualify the above statement. There is a lot to worry about in other areas of life if I think about it. But why worry about them during the market hours? The market gives us enough to worry on its own for us to add to it with our own personal problems.

Which brings me to the point that in the last one year, I have been increasingly surprised with the markets/investors ability to ignore worries and fool themselves. The Euro region came out with an insipid bail out package which only delays the inevitable but the markets reacted positively. The US temporary default is only a week away but the US Treasury is as strong as ever. For a long time now, the only action taken by most investors in the face of serious market problems has been to decide to take no action.

I am being kind here because I could have also said that the only action taken by most investors in the face of serious market problems has been and you can pick you choice 1] close their eyes and hope the problem goes away  2] stick their heads in the sand 3] freeze like a deer in headlights. The market has therefore been deceptively calm in the face of some serious threats.

As of now, I am long on the STT and LTT. I will cut my long and go short below 5532                                                                             Current Position  STT: Long LTT: Long

Possible Trades

STT: cut long and go short < 5532

LTT: Cut long and go short < 5502