Did it or Did it not?

I had said yesterday that the conclusive break of 4700 will lead to a crash to 3800-4000 levels. The operative word clearly was "conclusive" and that is the escape clause because who can define conclusive? It is a qualitative judgment that I can make with the benefit of hindsight!

So the question really is whether 4700 was conclusively broken? The nifty broke below that level but closed above it and is trading above it currently. Since I do not want to hide behind escape clauses, let me tell you that I want to believe that the break of 4700 was conclusive enough and that we should be headed lower in the coming months. The fall need not be swift and in all likelihood it will be the kind of fall in which even traders like me might not make too much money - a grinding fall with lots of sharp rallies in between to trigger my stops.

Having thus done away with the escape clause from my yesterdays note and having conclusively stated that I believe that we are headed lower, I want to highlight that I have rolled my short position into December and I will now cut my short positions and go long only above 4953.