Nifty Prediction

I have good news and bad news. The bad news first so that I can make your day with the good news later. I normally do not make predictions because I do not believe in it. I prefer to ride the trend. But we are poised on the edge of a precipice. So it does make sense to come out and say what I think could happen. If we fall below 4710 then we will trigger a SELL in even my monthly trend system. That will imply a pretty long and grinding fall. To top it the implications of a Head and Shoulder pattern  and the gap left during the May 2009 election leads to a level of 3800 for the Nifty. I am not suggesting that it will go there but I am definitely saying that if 4700 is broken conclusively then we are almost definitely headed towards 3800-4000 levels.

That was clearly the bad news. The good news is that my ability at predicting things is not much better than the friendly neighborhood astrologer! So we can all hope that I will be wrong....as usual. But let me tell you something with complete confidence. Despite my poor predictive abilities, I am much better at predicting than the friendly neighborhood strategist.

So without much ado let me complete this note by saying that I am short and will continue to remain short until 4925 is taken out in Nifty futures. Oh and in case you are interested you can open the attached chart to get a better picture of the rudimentary stuff I did to come out with my Nifty prediction!