Inexhaustible Creativity

Through the movie, Forrest Gump, Tom Hanks narrates his story to random strangers as he waits at a bus stop. He tells them something to this effect " So I went to the White House... again... and met the President... again..." all with an air of a person who is bored with doing this activity so often.

Similarly I have the boring job of writing that the Nifty fell... again, the European markets tumbled ...again and the S&P dropped ....again. How often can I say the same thing in different ways? How often can I use my creativity to suggest causes for this fall? Even my inexhaustible creativity has a limit. Well yesterdays fall was supposedly because the US budget super committee was FEARED to be unable to reach an agreement for the USD 1.2 trillion budget cuts over the next decade. When the failure actually happened late Monday night in the US, the S&P rallied from the bottom as S&P and Moody both reiterated the US credit ratings.

Now that the super committee has failed to reach an agreement the automatic spending cuts should kick in. But already we hear noises of the US military refusing to accept further cuts. What are the odds that the whoever is the President after 2012 will find some reason to increase US military budgets over the years? And reasons are plenty ranging from Iran nuclear capabilities, continued disturbance in Middle East and in the future maybe homeland defense duties. This whole hypocrisy makes me want to indulge in an activity which basically involves regurgitating edibles that one has ingested.

Notice that I have not mentioned Europe in my note today. I have reserved it for some other day when I can talk about rising yields in Govt debt of European nations as the cause of the market fall. On some other day I can use fears of a liquidity crunch in Europe as the reason for a fall. If anything, I am worried about what reasons to create in the event the market rallies for more than a couple of days. For two days, one can talk about a rally from an oversold position. After that I will be forced to tap my creative resources once again which I am loathe to do.

This ends my note for the day. Oh,sorry. I have not talked about my trade. I am short and will remain short until the Nifty future crosses 4953. The SGX Nifty was up in the morning. Hopefully not for long!