Wednesday, May 23, 2012

BULL or BEAR?

Being a trader and a part of the equity markets has a huge advantage. No I am not referring to my income which these days is not something worth talking about. It is about the fact that this acts like a good way to start a conversation. Usually any person I get introduced to will exchange pleasantries and then ask "What do you do for a living?" and I will be like "I trade the equity markets". Then depending on the his interest in the markets, the conversation can take any of the many turns. He can either quickly slide away, fearing that I will pitch him some mutual fund or some other product or if he is an amateur trader himself he can stand around and try and describe his method to me. This allows me the advantage of letting my mind roam while plastering a smile on my face and nodding my head at regular intervals.


But once in a while, I do get asked a question. It usually is something like "What are you, a Bull or a Bear?" It is then I give my practiced reply. "I am neither" I say, "I am a Dog." This never fails to elicit a confused look. Then if I am in the mood, I explain. "The market is made up of usually two kind of people. Those who are almost genetically ordained to be Bullish or Bearish. Do you know what the world does to BULLS and BEARS? They get slaughtered thats what. One for food and another for pleasure. But Dogs? That is another story. It is kept in the house, petted and once in a while thrown some food and bones. All it has to do is to wag its tail and follow the master."


I say that I am a Dog and follow my Master which is the Market. If it is going up then I follow it up. If it is going down then I will follow it down too. Notice, I said follow. Being a good dog, I will never ever try to lead the Master into any direction. I let the Master lead and I follow. This way, the Master is happy and I get thrown some bones once in a while and then I am happy too.


Usually, that is the last I get to see of that person. He forever avoids me after that!


Having said that, I have to say that I am short (from 4875 levels. I made a mistake in yesterdays note when I said 4775) The gut feel is that the market is NOT headed for a large fall. But then I am a DOG. What do I know what the Master wants to do?

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